“My Neighborhood” Example – Worst-Case Scenario – everyone gets exposed to SARS-CoV-2

(Last updated: Nov 10th 2020 – Excel Charts Included)

Download Excel Spreadsheets (with hospitalization and ICU data)
United Kingdom
France
Italy
Belgium

  • ~50,000 people = 1 City District
  • ~49,000/46,750/11,250 people will live without testing positive 1
  • ~49,910/49,800/49,430 people will live 1

Test positivity rate

  • ~1,000 / 3,250 / 7,500 / 38,750 people will test positive
    (2% Canada / 6.5% U.S. / 15% Italy / 77.5% Argentina/Mexico) 1

    Hospitalizations
    (Percentages applied to positive-test-case numbers)
  • ~50-200 / 650-1300 / 1500-3000 / 7750-15500 people will be hospitalized (~0.2-0.4%) 2
  • ~50-200 / 650-1300 / 1500-3000 / 7750-15500 people will be in ICU (~0.2-0.4%) 2
  • ~25-60 people will need ventilators (21-31%) 3

Affected with Adverse Effects
(Percentages applied to positive-test-case numbers)

  • 25-150 people will have “long-term” concentration/memory issues (27-75% of hospitalized) 4

Mortality Rates
(Percentages applied to positive-test-case numbers)

  • ~90/1850/4275 people die (examples Canada, U.S., Italy)
    (0.09%[<118d/m] / 0.2%[<118-500d/m] / 0.57%[>500d/m])
    (~0.3% – 150 in ICU – excel data) 5
  • ~85/1760/4061 people will die above age 70 (0.95%) 5
  • ~5/90/214 people will die below age 70 (0.05%) 6
  • ~3/40/100 people will die below age 60 6
  • ~1/15/35 people will die below age 50 6
  • ~0/5/10 people will die below age 40 6
  • ~1/2/5 in multiple districts will die below age 20 6

A simplicized formula for average covid deaths:
0.5% (av. pos. test. rate) * 0.2% (av. death rate) = 0.1% deaths
Out of that, 95% will die above 70 years of age.
So chance of someone below age of 70 dying is 0.1% * 0.05% = 0.005% (and 0.095% vice versa)

 

References:

1 Test positivity rate

2 Hospitalizations/ICU – Europe (plots for UK, France, Belgium, Italy, Spain)

From the graphs: UK: hospitalizations are about a double value from the number of deaths in UK (i.e. close to the death rate rather than positive case rate); in Italy: it is on par, up to a half of deaths; in France: also on par; Belgium has 1 to 2 time ICU.
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-data-hospital-and-icu-admission-rates-and-current-occupancy-covid-19

3 Ventilators

Between 21% and 31% of Covid-19 patients in the U.S. have required hospitalization, and 5% to 11% have required intensive care.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/30/covid-19-ventilators-how-they-work/
3.5% of them needed ventilators, that would be 0.245% or 9,000 people need ventilators.

4 Adverse Effects

Percent of hospitalized that have memory loss 34% 27% concentration months later, ~50% (France) ~75%
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/11/health/covid-survivors.html?smid=fb-share
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/more-than-75-per-cent-of-covid-patients-admitted-to-hospital-reported-abnormal-systems-three-months-later?fbclid=IwAR38QpplGt3LVEC6cJ4z4WhRronyIqd0dqA2hPLquhZ2OBx9K5LJC6O8xYo
UK based COVID Symptom Study that analyzes data from 4.3 million participants, suggests most people recover from COVID-19 within two weeks, but 10 per cent may still have symptoms after three weeks and some may suffer for months.

5 Mortality rates

John Ioannidis (WHO) data
“0.09% in locations with COVID-19 population mortality rates less than the global average (< 118 deaths/million), 0.20% in locations with 118–500 COVID-19 deaths/million people and 0.57% in locations with > 500 COVID-19 deaths/million people. In people < 70 years, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.31% with crude and corrected medians of 0.05%.”
Referenced paper (W.H.O.)

6 Mortality rates by age

Canadian Data
U.S. Data


EXTRA INTERESTING INFORMATION

Virus and Social Distancing Simulation/Modelling
(What happens if lock-down is not 100%)
Simulating an Epidemic (YT)

Stay-at-home policy – an “exception fallacy”
Scientific Reports

Countries Lock-down Comparison Charts
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-lockdowns/

Cancer Mortality Rate
83,400 people are estimated to die in Canada, in 2020. With a population size of 37.59 Million, this accounts for 0.2% cancer mortality rate. COVID-19 mortality rate in Canada is 0.09%.
https://www.cancer.ca/en/cancer-information/cancer-101/cancer-statistics-at-a-glance/?region=on

EuroMomo Data on Excess Deaths in Europe per Country since 2016 https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#z-scores-by-country

Excess Mortality across Countries in 2020
cebm.net

Nature Magazine – Stay-at-home policy article
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-84092-1

Spain Sewage – March 2019
https://globalnews.ca/news/7119856/coronavirus-sewage-barcelona-march-2019/

Wall street Journal – Extreme Poverty Graph
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-has-thrown-around-100-million-people-into-extreme-poverty-world-bank-estimates-11602086400?reflink=share_mobilewebshare

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